早上起床后,我又再打开E.E.Cameron和麦传球(Warren Mak)的4月18日的线上访问。
我重新听麦传球对Covid-19对世界经济的看法。他认为现在KLCI的好景,只是个假象。
- 本该在4月份和5月份的公布的季度财务报告和年度公司报告,全都延迟到6月的季报。但是,6月份发的季度报告,只看到MCO phase I的影响(首14天)。然后,7月和8月份发的季度报告,就可以看到2020年4月,5月和6月份公司真实的营业情况。他预测股灾会在10月和11月份到来。因为那时候,很多公司的全年表现已经很清楚了,只剩下最后一个季度。
- 大马KLCI 30只股票里,有7家银行股(Maybank, Public Bank, CIMB Group, Hong Leong Bank, RHB Bank, Hong Leong Finance和AMMB).现在国行要求银行从4月1日到9月30日,不向个人和公司收贷款,利息照样算,但是没有利滚利(compounding interest)。除了Covid-19,还有另外一个黑天鹅就是低油价,4月19日Brent Crude Future是USD28/barrel.这个低油价造成油气股重创,2014年下半年的历史重演。银行股得承受所有个人和企业不能如期还债的压力。
- Covid-19的居家令或在大马叫MCO,让石油的需求大减。飞机不飞,汽车不走。现在北半球是夏天,没有石油的需求。这个情况比2014下半年的石油价大跌,更严重。没有需求,就就算减产,也不会让石油价格上涨。
- Covid-19的疫情,是个大洗牌。很多旧款公司,人力密集公司,可能就只有一条路可以走,就是结业。大马有很多上市公司,都还没有转型成自动化。买股时,需要检查。不然一不小心买到要破产的股票,就麻烦了。
https://m.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=7u0lYxSGwVs
Coronavirus quarantines across the World
| ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Country | Place | Start date | End date | Level |
Albania | 2020-03-13[141] | National | ||
Algeria | Algiers | 2020-03-23[142] | 2020-04-19[143] | City |
Blida | ||||
Argentina | 2020-03-19[144] | 2020-04-26[145] | National | |
Armenia | 2020-03-24[146] | 2020-04-14[147] | National | |
Australia | 2020-03-23[148] | National | ||
Austria | 2020-03-16[149] | 2020-04-13[150] | National | |
Azerbaijan | 2020-03-31[151] | 2020-04-20[151] | National | |
Bangladesh | 2020-03-26[152] | 2020-04-25[153] | National | |
Belgium | 2020-03-18[154] | 2020-04-19[155] | National | |
Bolivia | 2020-03-22[156] | 2020-04-15[156] | National | |
Botswana | 2020-04-02[157] | 2020-04-30[157] | National | |
Brazil | Santa Catarina | 2020-03-17[158] | 2020-04-07[158] | State |
São Paulo | 2020-03-24[159] | 2020-04-08[159] | ||
Chile | 2020-03-19[160] | National | ||
Colombia | 2020-03-25[161] | 2020-04-27[162] | National | |
Republic of the Congo | 2020-03-31[163] | 2020-04-20[163] | National | |
Costa Rica | 2020-03-23[164] | National | ||
Croatia | 2020-03-18[165] | 2020-04-19[166] | National | |
Cuba | 2020-03-23[167] | 2020-04-20[167] | National | |
Czech Republic | 2020-03-16[149] | 2020-04-12[168] | National | |
Denmark | 2020-03-11[169] | 2020-04-13[169] | National | |
Dominican Republic | 2020-03-19[170] | National | ||
Ecuador | 2020-03-16[171] | 2020-03-31[171] | National | |
El Salvador | 2020-03-12[172] | 2020-04-02[172] | National | |
Eritrea | 2020-04-02[173] | 2020-04-23[173] | National | |
Fiji | Lautoka | 2020-03-20[174] | 2020-04-07[175] | City |
Suva | 2020-04-03[176] | 2020-04-17[177] | ||
Finland | Uusimaa | 2020-03-27[178] | 2020-04-16[178] | Region |
France | 2020-03-17[179] | 2020-05-11[180] | National | |
Georgia | 2020-03-31[181] | 2020-04-21[181] | National | |
Germany | Bavaria | 2020-03-20[182] | 2020-04-19[183] | State |
Freiburg, BW | 2020-03-21[184] | 2020-04-03[185] | City | |
Ghana | Accra | 2020-03-30[186] | 2020-04-12[187] | Metropolitan Area |
Kumasi | ||||
Greece | 2020-03-23[188] | 2020-04-27[189] | National | |
Honduras | Central District | 2020-03-16[190] | Municipality | |
La Ceiba | ||||
Choluteca | ||||
San Pedro Sula | 2020-03-17[191] | |||
Rest of area | 2020-03-20[192] | 2020-04-19[193] | National | |
Hungary | 2020-03-28[194] | 2020-04-10[194] | National | |
India | 2020-03-25[195] | 2020-05-03[196] | National | |
Indonesia | Jakarta[a] | 2020-04-10[197] | 2020-04-23[197] | Province |
Tegal | 2020-03-26[198] | 2020-07-31[199] | City | |
Iraq | 2020-03-22[200] | 2020-04-11[201] | National | |
Ireland | 2020-03-12[202] | 2020-05-05[203] | National | |
Israel | Bnei Brak | 2020-04-02[204] | City | |
Italy | 2020-03-09[205] | 2020-05-03[206] | National | |
Japan | Chiba | 2020-04-07[207] | 2020-05-06[207] | Prefecture |
Fukuoka | ||||
Hyōgo | ||||
Kanagawa | ||||
Osaka | ||||
Saitama | ||||
Tokyo[b] | ||||
Jordan | 2020-03-21[208] | National | ||
Kuwait | 2020-03-14[209] | 2020-03-29[209] | National | |
Lebanon | 2020-03-15[210] | 2020-03-28[210] | National | |
Liberia | Margibi | 2020-03-23[211] | 2020-04-11[211] | County |
Montserrado | ||||
Libya | 2020-03-22[212] | National | ||
Lithuania | 2020-03-16[213] | 2020-04-27[214] | National | |
Luxembourg | 2020-03-18[215] | National | ||
Madagascar | Antananarivo | 2020-03-23[216] | City | |
Toamasina | ||||
Malaysia | 2020-03-18[217] | 2020-04-28[218] | National | |
Montenegro | Tuzi | 2020-03-24[219] | Municipality | |
Morocco | 2020-03-19[220] | 2020-04-20[221] | National | |
Nepal | 2020-03-24[222] | 2020-04-15[223] | National | |
Netherlands | 2020-03-16[224] | 2020-04-28[225] | National | |
New Zealand | 2020-03-26[226] | National | ||
Nigeria | Abuja | 2020-03-30[227] | 2020-04-12[227] | City |
Lagos | ||||
Ogun | State | |||
Northern Cyprus | 2020-03-30[228] | National | ||
Norway | 2020-03-12[229] | 2020-04-13[229] | National | |
Oman | Muscat | 2020-04-10[230] | 2020-04-22[230] | Governorate |
Jalan Bani Bu Ali | 2020-04-16[231] | Province | ||
Pakistan | 2020-04-01[232] | 2020-04-30[233] | National | |
Panama | 2020-03-25[234] | 2020-04-07[235] | National | |
Papua New Guinea | 2020-03-24[236] | 2020-04-07[236] | National | |
Paraguay | 2020-03-20[237] | 2020-04-12[238] | National | |
Peru | 2020-03-16[239] | 2020-04-26[240] | National | |
Philippines | Cebu | 2020-03-27[241] | 2020-04-30[242] | Province |
Davao Region | 2020-03-19[243] | Region | ||
Luzon | 2020-03-15[244] | Island group | ||
Soccsksargen | 2020-03-23[243] | Region | ||
Poland | 2020-03-13[245] | 2020-04-11[246] | National | |
Portugal | 2020-03-19[247] | 2020-04-02[246] | National | |
Qatar | Doha Industrial Area | 2020-03-11[248] | Industrial park | |
Romania | 2020-03-25[249] | 2020-05-12[250] | National | |
Russia | Moscow | 2020-03-30[251] | 2020-05-01[252] | Metropolitan area |
Rwanda | 2020-03-21[253] | 2020-04-19[254] | National | |
Samoa | 2020-03-26[255] | 2020-04-08[256] | National | |
San Marino | 2020-03-14[257] | National | ||
Saudi Arabia | Jeddah | 2020-03-29[258] | City | |
Mecca | 2020-03-26[258] | |||
Medina | 2020-03-26[258] | |||
Qatif | 2020-03-09[259] | Area | ||
Riyadh | 2020-03-26[258] | City | ||
Serbia | 2020-03-15[246] | National | ||
Singapore | 2020-04-07[260] | 2020-05-04[260] | National | |
South Africa | 2020-03-26[261] | 2020-04-30[262] | National | |
Spain | 2020-03-14[263] | 2020-04-25[264] | National | |
Switzerland | 2020-03-17[265] | National | ||
Thailand | 2020-03-25[266] | 2020-04-30[267] | National | |
Tunisia | 2020-03-22[268] | 2020-04-19[269] | National | |
Turkey | 2020-04-11[270] | 2020-04-13[270] | National | |
Ukraine | 2020-03-17[246] | 2020-04-24[246] | National | |
United Arab Emirates | 2020-03-26[271] | 2020-04-17[272] | National | |
United Kingdom | 2020-03-24[273] | National | ||
United States | California | 2020-03-19[274] | State | |
Clark County, NV | 2020-03-20[275] | County | ||
Connecticut | 2020-03-23[276] | 2020-04-22[277] | State | |
Illinois | 2020-03-21[278] | 2020-04-07[277] | ||
Kansas City, KS | 2020-03-24[279] | 2020-04-19[280] | City | |
Massachusetts | 2020-03-24[281] | 2020-04-07[281] | State | |
Michigan | 2020-03-24[282] | 2020-04-13[277] | ||
New York | 2020-03-20[283] | 2020-05-15[284] | ||
Oregon | 2020-03-24[285] | |||
Wisconsin | 2020-03-24[286] | |||
Venezuela | 2020-03-17[287] | National | ||
Zimbabwe | 2020-03-30[288] | 2020-04-19[288] | National | |
Outbreak ongoing: Quarantine data as of April 19, 2020 |
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