娜娜KLSE投资笔记本: EMCO

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Friday, 5 June 2020

MCO管制令第80天：大马宣布第4次救市措施

吉隆坡5日讯）政府总共承诺多少亿救经济？

随着2019冠状病毒病疫情恶化，政府为振兴经济力保人民饭碗，在短短4个月内宣布4次的拯救经济措施，史无前例承诺投出高达3150亿令吉。

2月28日：时任过渡首相敦马哈迪医生宣布200亿令吉“经济振兴配套”。
3月28日：国盟首相丹斯里慕尤丁宣布2500亿令吉“第2经济振兴配套”。
4月7日：首相丹斯里慕尤丁宣布100亿令吉的“中小企业关怀配套”。
6月5日：首相丹斯里慕尤丁宣布350亿令吉“短期经济复苏计划”。

Wednesday, 27 May 2020

丰隆工业 (HLIND 3301) 季报分析篇 [Q3 FY2020]

HLI is principally engaged in 2 business segments

Consumer products: Manufacturing, assembling and distribution of motorcycles, scooters and related parts and products, manufacturing and sale of ceramic tiles as well as distribution, trading and provision of services in marine related products.
Industrial products: Manufacturing and sale of fibre cement and concrete roofing products.

HLI also has associated companies which are involved in the manufacturing, assembling and distribution of motorcycles, motorcycle engines and spare parts.

Annual Report 2019 stated that

In 2019 company annual report, the Group’s revenue increased from RM2,503 million to RM2,750 million during FY2019, an increase of 10% compared with the previous financial year ended 30 June 2018 (“FY2018”). The increase in revenue was mainly contributed by the increase in revenue of the motorcycle segment. The increase was however partly negated by the weaker demand for building materials products in the domestic market. Operating expenses decreased by 7% to RM197 million during FY2019 as compared with RM211 million for FY2018. The Group has put in significant efforts to streamline processes, enhance operational efficiencies and reduce costs structurally to sustain its profitability.

a)Consumer segment

The consumer division sells motorcycles and marine related products under the Yamaha brand while ceramic tiles are distributed and sold under the Guocera brand. Sales and distribution of consumer products are undertaken generally through strategic partnership with key distributors and dealers. Motorcycle – Overview Hong Leong Yamaha Motor Sdn Bhd (“HLYM”) commenced operation in 1978 with the signing of the franchise agreement between HLI and Yamaha Motor Corporation (“YMC”) to venture into the manufacture, assembly and marketing of Yamaha motorcycles in Malaysia. The company currently operates from its factory located in Sungai Buloh, Selangor, Malaysia and distributes its motorcycles through a well-established nationwide network of dealers, including exclusive dealers of HLYM products. Over the years, HLYM has established itself as a significant domestic player in Malaysia. In Vietnam, HLI has a 24% stake in Yamaha Motor Vietnam Co. Ltd (“YMVN”). The other two joint venture shareholders in YMVN are YMC and Vietnam Forest Corporation.

Motorcycle – Performance Review In FY2019, the total motorcycle industry sales volume increased by 16% to 573,000 largely attributable to the “tax holidays” period in June 2018 to August 2018 when the Goods and Service Tax rate was zeroised and motorcycles with engines 250cc and below were exempted from sales tax with the implementation of Sales and Service Tax 2018 from September 2018 onwards. Yamaha continued to uphold its market leader position for the financial year under review. In order to sustain its market-leading position, HLYM persistently invests into brand building activities and continues to provide the Malaysian consumers with a range of latest and most innovative motorcycles in all segments.

In Vietnam, total industry demand for motorcycles declined marginally by 0.3% from 3,300,000 units in FY2018 to 3,290,000 in FY2019 after 4 consecutive years of growth. The slight contraction in the total motorcycle industry demand in FY2019 was mainly attributed to the motorcycles market saturation in Vietnam.

Marine Related Products – Overview HLY Marine Sdn Bhd (“HLY Marine”), a wholly-owned subsidiary of HLI, was appointed as the exclusive re-seller and distributor of Yamaha outboard motor products since April 2017. The company currently operates from Sungai Buloh, Selangor, Malaysia and 3 branches in Malaysia offering sales, service and spare parts of Yamaha outboard motor products nationwide through a network of dealers. Marine Related Products – Performance Review HLY Marine continues to be the leader in market share of outboard motor in West Malaysia for FY2019. While the marine industry remains competitive, especially in the medium and high horse power 4-stroke segment, efforts have been in establishing a strong dealership network, setting up Yamaha Technical Academy, continuous improvement in after sales service and promoting the awareness of genuine parts through conducting 3S campaigns. These have enabled HLY Marine to maintain an advantage over its competitors.

b)Industrial Products

Ceramic Tiles – Overview Guocera Holdings Sdn Bhd (“GHSB”) is the holding company for the tiles business of HLI. GHSB, through its two manufacturing facilities located in Kluang, Johor and Meru, Selangor (“GHSB Group”), manufactures and distributes a full range of ceramic and porcelain tiles. Since 1993, GHSB Group has been promoting and marketing its tiles under the common brand name “Ceramiche Guocera”. GHSB Group exports its tiles worldwide to customers in Asia Pacific, Middle East, Europe and North America. Through its export presence over the past 40 years, Guocera is a globally recognised brand in the industry. Over the years, GHSB Group has been transforming the living and work spaces of its customers with innovative products and inspiring designs. Inspired by quality Italian craftsmanship and its artisan ethos, Guocera is a recognised household brand in Malaysia.

Moving forward into the new financial year ending 30 June 2020 (“FY2020”), GHSB Group’s immediate plans are to enhance manufacturing efficiencies through continuous cost down programmes and plant reconfiguration, strengthening and upskilling workforce, expanding retail market network with effective merchandising activities, strengthening embedment in key international markets and launching of new products to attract the existing and prospective customers.

INDUSTRIAL SEGMENT The industrial division manufactures and distributes fibre cement board under the brand name “PRIMABOARD”, concrete roofing tiles as well as distribution of other building material products. Products are distributed to both local and overseas markets via retail as well as projects. Fibre Cement Board – Overview Hume Cemboard Industries Sdn Bhd (“HCI”), a whollyowned subsidiary of HLI, was first incorporated as Cemboard (M) Sdn Bhd and started commercial production in 1982. HCI manufactures and distributes the PRIMABOARD family of products, comprising cellulose fibre cement boards in various dimensions that provide internal lining and external architectural cladding solutions for buildings and their surrounds. Fibre cement board products are made from high grade cellulose fibre, quality cement, sand and water and can be used in myriad applications in the residential, industrial and commercial markets.

The fibre cement board products are manufactured in its plants located in Petaling Jaya, Selangor and Kanthan, Perak. HCI is the leading domestic player in the fibre cement board industry and distributes its products both locally and internationally. Its export markets include Australia, Taiwan, South Korea, Middle East, Vietnam and Philippines.

Fibre Cement Board – Performance Review For the financial year under review, HCI faced the challenges of low export prices, weaker United States Dollars against Malaysian Ringgit, escalation of pulp prices being the key raw materials as well as increase in energy costs. To mitigate these challenges, HCI had focused to increase its domestic sales and executed strategic cost transformation measures to preserve margin without compromising on product quality.

Concrete Roofing Tiles – Performance Review FY2019 has been a challenging year for the building materials industry, with no exception for the roofing tiles. HRP managed to maintain the sales against the previous year while increasing the average product selling price to reduce loss as compared with the preceding year. As the outlook of the housing industry is expected to remain weak, the key focus will be continuous cost improvement activities to ensure cost competitiveness with products of high quality and reliability. For the upcoming financial year, HRP is expected to sustain the current market share in sales, as well as strengthen its presence as one of the key players in the concrete roofing tile industry through consistency of the services and product confidence.

Malaysia Motor Industry Information

https://www.motorcyclesdata.com/2020/02/05/malaysia-motorcycles/

Following the negative period when, between the 2013 and the 2016 the market has lost over 170.000 units in the annual balance, since 2017 the market has recovered, posting three years of growth.

According to data released by the Malaysian Association of Motorcycles Manufacturers, in the 2019 the domestic market was back at the 2013 level with sales at 546.813 units, up 15.9% from the previous year.

Despite ranking only 5th among the ASEAN region, the Malaysian market is one of the largest worldwide and in the 2019 ranked as 14th.

In fact, in the 2019, Yamaha has sold a record of 209.403 units (+11%) with 36% of market share, while in second place Honda sold 187.000 two-wheelers (+33%).

丰隆工业的主要生意是Yamaha的代理。大马汽车在2020年4月份，全国只卖141辆。

我看到一些电单车的Dealers都在促销，用无利息或延迟付款来卖电单车。但是，现在很多人在SME工作的人，都担心失去工作。大家都不花钱买大样的产品。

电单车的销售量在2017年跌，然后在2018和2019年成长。

看回去丰隆工业的股价

16.10.2014 RM3.098

04.08.2015 RM4.674 日线黑马出世

30.11.2019 RM9.40 股价跌破MA200天均线

19.04.2020 RM6.19 最近的低价

27.05.2020 RM8.43

我个人不看好HLIND Q4的业绩。因为4月到6月都是MCO和CMCO的期间。虽然，HLIND准备很多现金以度过难关。YTD Q3 EPS =RM0.6337, PE@13.3. YTD Q3 Revenue = RM2.146 Billion, 和FY2015的RM2.138 Billion差不多。当时的EPS是RM0.5618.

我会观察它，但不会买它。除非它的价格非常便宜。