MCO管制令第103天：大马天然气 GASMSIA (5209)

乐投资 LeInves 【股东大会资讯站】

• GAS Malaysia是属于成熟成长和有给5%股息的股。
• 我看过去的记录，在2015年，股价是RM1.66因为业绩差。
• 股价最高是在2013年10月31日达到RM3.21。
• Covid-19 3月17日时，跌到RM2.58.
• 6月25日时，已经升到RM2.89。比3月时还要高。
• 虽然Gas Malaysia拿到20的天然气Distribution license和10年的shipping license,但是这个生意是稳和慢。

Gas Malaysia - 1Q20 Results Met Expectations

 Fri, 22 May 2020, 9:24 AM

Gas Malaysia’s (GMB) 1Q20 results were in line with our forecast. Gas sales volume was up 4% yoy at 49.8MMbtu but revenue was lower by 6% due to lower tariffs. Our current forecast is 15% below consensus as we have factored in a much weaker gas sales volume, largely due to the weak economic outlook and also the Movement Control Order (MCO) impact. No changes to our assumptions. Maintain our HOLD rating with a slightly higher DDM-based TP of RM2.62 upon rolling forward our valuation horizon.

Within Expectations

GMB’s 1Q20 net profit met 29% of our full-year forecast. Revenue declined 6% on the back of revised lower average tariffs, but more importantly, gas sales volume grew 4% yoy. 1Q20 gross profit margin grew 1.1ppts yoy to 5.2% which we believe was due to the lower maintenance overhead costs and should likely normalize in the coming quarters. No details were shared pertaining to the higher tax rate at 29% (1Q19: 25%), pending clarity in the result conference call later.

Seasonal Weaker Volume

Sequentially, gas sales volume fell by 6% due to seasonality, leading to a 4% decline in revenue. We believe 2Q20 would likely see a wider decline in gas sales volume as businesses are impacted by the extended MCO. The narrowing in non-regulated business loss at the associate level also helped drive PATAMI growth by 34% qoq, due to the presence of the prioryear audit adjustment.

Maintain HOLD

We fine-tune our earnings forecasts following the release of the updated 2019 audited numbers. We maintain our HOLD rating but raise our DDMbased 12-month target price to RM2.62 (from RM2.55) as we roll forward our valuation horizon. We continue to view GMB as a defensive yield play with a 4% projected yield based on our 90% payout assumption (lower than >100% payout over the past 2 years).

Risks to Our Call

Key upside risks include higher-than-expected sales volume and better margins. Key downside risks would be an economic recession affecting demand for natural gas and start-up losses from the group’s joint ventures.

【行家论股/视频】大马天然气 销量跌仅短暂

目标价：3.11令吉
最新进展：

受到行动管控令影响，大马天然气（GASMSIA，5209，主板公用事业股）在4月的销售量按年单位数下跌，今年首季时还增长了1%。

所幸，管理层继续降低营运开销来抵消销售量下跌的不利。首季营运开销减少14%，放眼全年可减9至10%。

行家建议：

除了降低营运开销，大马天然气也重新评估2020财年资本开销，可能会跟着减低，但维护和维修方面的开销维持。

虽然管控令冲击买气，但许多顾客已从4月中开始逐步重启营运，低销量只是短期，5月底时营运就会完全恢复。

另一方面，天然气当前低企，对大马天然气的冲击却不大。该公司和国家石油在去年12月签署的供应合约，已经锁定了购买量。

同时，该公司近期在第三方准入（TPA）架构中签署的新合约，保证按合同规定的价格来承购天然气。

即便顾客们能再和其他供应商洽商以获得更低的价格，但毁约的罚金高昂，让大马天然气免去被撤销合约的风险。

我们预计，该公司能够达到我们今年的财测，放眼销售量能增长4%，因橡胶和消费工业领域还是能支撑需求。

同时，维持“买入”评级和3.11令吉的目标价。