2019亏钱交易:JTIASA

巴菲特说，投资第一条就是要保本。保护自己的资金。因为这些钱都是从每个月的月薪留下的钱。但是，还是会患上严重的毛病。就是听消息买。所以,我会把亏损的投机交易都写下。以提醒自己。

2018年Q4的行情烂到好像股灾就要到达。就算是亏钱，也要卖掉股票，增加手上的现金。那里知道，2019Q1，股市就开始大起。那些跌到惨惨的股票，都开始反弹。我又因为假厉害，早早亏损卖掉股票，变成手上有钱，但是没有股票。

2019年4月时，大多数领域都涨了。除了产业和油棕股。我就看到油棕指数有起。然后，就要买油棕股。在这么多油棕股里，我只买过JTIASA和SOP。因为贪心，要少钱买多些股数，我就选择JTIASA.虽然它亏钱。但是，我认为它应该会在2019年5月份时，公布好业绩。为什么觉得它有可能把业绩从红变黑呢？在季报找到答案吗？不是的，是我一厢情愿以为油棕行业变好。JTIASA也会变好。然后，我追高。买了JTIASA，股价跌，我止损。过不到一个星期，我看到股价的波动，觉得有机会投机。然后，又再去买。这次买了，又再亏钱离场。这两次不经大脑的投机，就亏损RM1704。我个人开销，一个月都没这么多钱。但是我的投机，就亏损RM1704。

2019年5月23日，JTIASA的季报成绩更加惨不忍睹。结果，股价跌到RM0.48。

买股票时，应该在买入时，就有数据支持，高赚钱成算。
不可以买下跌趋势的股票，不可以博反弹。不要以为亏钱的公司，很容易翻身。

Jaya Tiasa’s 9MFY19 core net loss of RM172.4m (vs. 9MFY18 core net loss of RM21.1m) came in below our expectation. The variance was mainly due to weaker-than-expected contribution from the palm oil and timber divisions. As such, we now project FY19-20 core net losses of RM195.1m and RM4m, respectively, and cut our FY21 core EPS forecast by 41%, mainly to account for higher operating costs and a lower CPO price assumption. Based on our revised earnings forecast and after rolling forward our valuation horizon to CY20E, we revise our SOTP-derived target price to RM0.40. Given the 22% downside to our new TP, we downgrade Jaya Tiasa to SELL (from HOLD previously).

9MFY19 Core Net Loss of RM172.4m, Worse Than Expected

Jaya Tiasa reported 9MFY19 revenue of RM503.6m, down 23.7% yoy, mainly attributable to the lower contribution from both the timber (-37.2% yoy) and palm oil (-16.5% yoy) divisions. The lower revenue from the timber division was due to a decline in plywood and log sales volumes, while revenue contribution from the palm oil division was affected by weaker CPO and PK prices. Jaya Tiasa posted a LBT of RM171.3m in 9MFY19 vs. a LBT of RM32.4m in 9MFY18, as both timber and palm oil divisions are loss-making. After excluding one-off items, Jaya Tiasa posted a core net loss of RM172.4m in 9MFY19 as compared to a core net loss of RM21.1m in 9MFY18. This was below our expectation, mainly due to weaker-than-expected contribution from both the palm oil and timber divisions.

Losses Widened Further in 3QFY19

Jaya Tiasa’s revenue in 3QFY19 declined by 34.6% qoq to RM115.7m, attributable to lower contribution from both the timber and palm oil divisions due to a decrease in the sales volumes of FFB, CPO and logs. This was partially offset by a slight increase in the CPO price to RM1,885/MT in 3QFY19, up 2.8% qoq. Jaya Tiasa reported a wider core net loss of RM124.6m in 3FY19 vs. a core net loss of RM47.3m in 2QFY19.

Source: Affin Hwang Research - 24 May 2019