美联储第三次量化宽松货币政策(QE3)

【第三轮量化宽松（QE3）】

政策介绍：

2012年9月14日，美联储在结束为期两天的9月利率会议后宣布：0-0.25%的超低利率的维持期限将延长到2015年中，将从9月14日开始推出进一步量化宽松政策 (QE3)，按每月400亿美元的进度进一步购买机构抵押贷款支持债券(MBS)，现有扭曲操作(OT)等维持不变。此消息一出金融市场涨声一片。

效果预判：

美联储再推量化宽松或难解经济困局

美联储13日出台了第三轮量化宽松(QE3)货币政策。美联储使出浑身解数，但美国经济自2009年夏天结束衰退后，一直在复苏道路上蹒跚前行，可望出现的强劲增长始终没有来临，而失业率也一直在高位徘徊｡不少专家认为，美国经济目前缺乏的不是流动性，而是确定性｡

环境已经变换 QE3效果或打折扣

与市场普遍预期一致，美联储宣布启动第三轮量化宽松(QE3)。分析人士认为，考虑到当前经济环境及市场环境与前两轮量化宽松推出时大相径庭，新一轮量化宽松操作对实体经济刺激效力可能大打折扣，全球资本市场不应对QE3给予过高期待。

国际影响：

切勿低估QE3对中国经济的负面作用

近来坊间较为流行的言论是：QE3对中国经济利大于弊。但值得强调的是，世异时移，QE3和之前量化宽松政策最大的区别正在于，前两轮QE的影响已 沉淀，这实际上改变了第三轮QE产生作用的经济环境和物质基础。因此，结合当前国际国内经济金融形势，QE3对中国的影响未必利大于弊。

台统计机构：QE3若推出不利物价稳定

台湾“中华经济研究院”经济展望中心主任刘孟俊表示，QE3推出将带动美元居于弱势，亚洲各地为了挽救出口，将被迫进入货币竞贬战。台湾方面汇价操作空间小，一方面要顾虑到进口机器设备成本，另一方面也要担心出口产品竞争力。

QE3 (September 2012 - October 2014)

On September 13, 2012, the Fed announced QE3. It agreed to buy $40 billion in MBS, and continue Operation Twist, adding a total $85 billion of liquidity a month. The Fed did three other things it had never done before:

1.    Announced it would keep the Fed funds rate at zero until 2015.

2.    Said it would keep purchasing securities until jobs improved "substantially."

3.    Acted to boost the economy, not just avoid a contraction.

QE4 (January 2013 - October 2014)

In December 2012, the Fed announced it would buy a total of $85 billion in long-term Treasurys and MBS. It ended Operation Twist, instead just rolling over the short-term bills. It clarified its direction by promising to keep purchasing securities until one of two conditions were met.  Either unemployment would fall below 6.5 percent or inflation would rise above 2.5 percent. Since QE4 is really just an extension of QE3, some people still refer to it as QE3. Others call it "QE Infinity" because it didn't have a definite end date.

The End of QE

On  December 18, 2013, the FOMC announced it would begin tapering its purchases, as its three economic targets were being met. 

1.    The unemployment rate was at 7 percent. 

2.    GDP growth was between 2 and 3 percent.

3.    The core inflation rate hadn't exceeded 2 percent.

The FOMC would keep the fed funds rate and the discount rate between zero and one-quarter points until 2015, and below 2 percent through 2016. 

Sure enough, on October 29, 2014, the FOMC announced it had made its final purchase. Its holdings of securities had doubled from $2.1 trillion to $4.5 trillion. It would continue to replace these securities as they came due to maintain its holdings at those levels.

On June 14, 2017, the FOMC announced how it will begin reducing its QE holdings. It will allow $6 billion of Treasurys to mature each month without replacing them. Each following month it will allow another $6 billion to mature until it's retiring $30 billion a month. The Fed will follow a similar process with its holdings of mortgage-backed securities. It will retire an additional $4 billion a month until it reaches a plateau of $20 billion a month being retired. This change won't occur until the fed funds rate reaches 2 percent.